Nokia and Windows Phone: any light at the end of the tunnel?

Just a quick note for all those who believe that the sorts of Nokia depend on the success of Windows Phone 8: it mostly doesn't. Provided that Nokia survives till the moment when Windows Phone 8 based phones are available, here's what I believe will happen then:

  • Nokia regains some market share by selling smartphones based on WP8.
  • Samsung, LG, HTC and other phone manufacturers join the WP8 party.
  • Nokia is not able to differentiate enough, loses market share and is forced to lower the selling prices, therefore shrinking the profit margins.
  • With the most generous prediction, Nokia market share will be of 10%, with minimal operating profit, compared to a market share of about 40% it had before the Windows Phone madness started.

(this is all assuming that WP8 will be a success)

Good luck with Windows Phone, Nokia!
Investors: better hope that WP8 will be a failure - then your stocks will definitely grow in value!


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